This year, we have heard about the possibility of deteriorated global coffee production due to the extreme weather conditions. As the end of Q4-2023 is approaching, most coffee business owners speculate on the global coffee market situation in the upcoming years. Would the future coffee price and production in 2024 from the top coffee suppliers bring them a better net profit? A reverse from the optimistic hope, experts have predicted a possibility of a prolonged crisis that will impact global coffee production and export in 2024.

In recent months, many countries have reported to face a series of record-breaking extreme weathers. In 2023, we’ve seen the heatwave caused a substantial decline in the production of the green coffee beans from the top coffee supplier countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Vietnam. However, the extreme weather is predicted to continue and cause a dwindling supply of green coffee beans. Let’s read a further projection of global coffee production and export in 2024 from the world’s leading coffee supplier countries through this article!

How are Global Coffee Production & Export in 2024? – A Prediction of Future Global Coffee Market Based on Top Coffee Supplier Countries

In early 2023, coffee businesses were substantially impacted by the expensive price of green coffee beans. Unfortunately, this situation is likely to continue until next year. Let’s dive deeper into the projection of the future coffee production and export from top global coffee supplier countries below. 

Brazil

Recently, Brazil’s coffee crop has been reported to be promising to deliver a higher output of green coffee beans compared to 2023 (Texeira, 2023). So it’s most likely that Brazil is able to be well-performed in terms of the total volume.  

In general, the condition of the coffee plants is ideal, in which it shows substantial leaves and branches growth. However, the weather in Brazil is projected to be more humid than it should be. This causes the uneven maturation stage of the coffee cherries. Within the same plant, some coffee cherries might be perfectly ripe, while others are unripe or even excessively ripe. The gap in terms of maturity level in the coffee cherries hurts the final quality. For this reason, it causes your coffee to reveal an inferior quality. Brazil might not face a supply capability issue. However, the quality issue might shadow a cast on their coffee production. 

Vietnam

On the other side, Vietnam is reported to experience a similar issue. This year, Vietnam coffee exports substantially plummeted due to the tight supply from 1.2 million M/T in Q2-2023 and early Q3-2023 to only 84,647 M/T in August (Vietnam Business Forum, 2023). This country slows down their coffee export as the coffee farmers are reported to be currently holding their coffee stock to balance the price (Volcafe, 2023). Furthermore, experts also predicted this situation to continue in 2024. Hence, the green coffee beans exported in the next year from this country might be a mix of old crops and fresh crops. 

Indonesia

This country has been severely impacted by the El Nino dry weather that degrades coffee production. The situation is getting worse after the exports predicted the possibility of a prolonged El Nino’s extreme weather until early 2024 in Indonesia. The prolonged drought is further predicted to drop Indonesian coffee production from 2024 to 2025. Because it happens in 2 key coffee supplier regions, Java and Sumatra island (Kurniawati & Thukral, 2023). When there is not enough water supply for the coffee plantation, Indonesian coffee production is at stake. This further leads to low export quota of the green coffee beans. The extreme weather could trigger the price of green coffee beans to be higher in the next year. Based on this reason, the future export price of green coffee beans will remain high in 2024. 

How to Get the Most Competitive Price When Exporting Green Coffee Beans? 

It seems that the price of green coffee beans from top coffee supplier countries might not set to come down until 2024. Even the price will continue to hike. Hence, the coffee business owners start to build a new buying strategy to keep their business operating well. Not only do they export green coffee beans directly from the country of origin, but gradually improve the export quantity as well. Hence, the coffee importer are able to get the cheapest price when purchasing green coffee beans in bulk. Also, it helps the buyer to secure the green coffee beans stock just in case a coffee shortage happens. Based on this reason, most coffee suppliers expand their distribution channels in selling their green coffee beans. Be it online or offline. Just like what Wallacea Coffee does as a direct-trade coffee supplier.

Recently, they released a BYOC (Build Your Own Container) system that allows coffee customers to mix and match all coffee variants in our catalog inside a 20 F/T container. This allows the customer to buy Gayo Sumatra Arabica, Mandheling Sumatra Arabica, Lintong Sumatra Arabica, Ijen Mountain Arabica, and Indonesian premium Robusta green coffee beans at the same time. Based on this reason, coffee exporters are now able to secure their stock by purchasing green coffee beans in bulk at the most competitive prices. 

Do not miss our best deal for you. Buy green coffee beans directly from the source of a direct-trade coffee supplier today. We have removed middlemen from our independent supply chain, making it only between you and our domestic farmers. Request a specialized quote for green coffee beans through our BYOC page now.